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October 28, 2009 (LPAC) — Habibullo Abdussamatov, Director of the Space Research Laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg, and Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria, writes in a recent English translation of an article entitled "The Sun Defines the Climate," published in the Russian journal "Nauka i Zhizn" ("Life and science") earlier this year, "Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is 'not guilty,' and over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop."

Dr. Abdussamatov's forecast of a future deep temperature drop, is based on the recent decrease in sunspot activity and the reaching of the grand mininium of his bicentennial cycle, which is based on the cyclic changes in the Sun's radius in relation to the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). He views this bicentennial cycle as the parent or governing cycle of the 22-year Hale solar cycle and the 11-year Schwabe solar cycle. With his Bicentennial cycle, as it reaches the grand minimum, each solar cycle becomes less active than the previous solar cycle and that corresponds to a decrease in global temperature.

Dr. Abdussamatov further warns, "We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis."