September 27, 2007 (LPAC)--The negotiations on the Russian proposal for joint use of the Gabala radar installation in Azerbaijan, had better be successful, or there will be ``big trouble,'' stated Sergey Mikhailovich Rogov, Director of Russia's U.S.A. and Canada Institute, and member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Rogov was replying to a question from EIR reporter Michele Steinberg, directed to a panel of U.S. and Russian ambassadors from the last three decades who appeared at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. on Sept. 25.
Thirteen former Ambassadors from the U.S. to Russia, and from Russia to the U.S. were present at the event, which commemorated the 200th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the U.S.A. and Russia. The panel opened with statements from two of the former Russian Ambassadors, Vladimir Lukin and Yury Dubinin, and from two of the American Ambassadors, James Franklin Collins and Arthur Hartman answering the question as to whether the ``rocky'' relations between the two countries could face better days, especially after the 2008 elections in both countries. All of the panelists of course agreed, yes, relations can and must, but the podium questions, from moderator Jill Dougherty of CNN, were absolutely lacking in content and vision.
However, when EIR's Steinberg raised the Kennebunkport initiative by Putin, to offer a chance for U.S.-Russian cooperation on the Gabala radar installation in Azerbaijan, there was a very lively response. Steinberg also asked about the role of the commission with Henry Kissinger and Dr. Yevgeny Primakov which was set up to pursue U.S.-Russian cooperation.
It turns out that several participants there are either on the commission, or work with it, including, Ambassador Yuli Vorontsov, Thomas Graham from Kissinger McLarty Associates, and Rogov, who is more of an adviser.
Vorontsov said that the Kissinger-Primakov commission, of which he is a member, has a broader purpose in discussing cooperation, and nothing per se to do with negotiating the Gabala proposal. It is a commission of senior advisers, and that, answering as a member of that commission, he hoped that they will find a role in advising the governments of both countries that come into being when after their respective elections. The Commission just had a very successful meeting recently, and plans to meet again in January.
Speaking from the audience, Rogov--who played a major role in organizing the Ambassadors' conference--made two points: the Kissinger Primakov Commission is a gathering to mobilize the brain power of both sides to discuss and figure out what can be done to improve the relations between the two. It does not negotiate the missile defense issue, and is not a substitute for negotiations. There have been some official discussions between the Foreign Ministry and the State Dept., and a week or so ago, a group that included "the BMDO" [sic--Ballistic Missiles Defense Office, now called the Missile Defense Agency] visited the site in Gabala, and the Russians showed the Americans their ``TOP SECRET facilities'' for the first time. However, said Rogov, [Gen. Patrick] O'Reilly was not all that impressed, and the Americans indicated they want to use Gabala for its capabilities, ``along with'' Poland and Czechoslovakia. The Russians said, ``no, that does not work--it is either/or.'' So, said Rogov, there have to be negotiations. If this does not lead to compromise, there will be ``big trouble.''
In one-on-one discussions, two leading Russians and one American stressed the importance of the Kennebunkport initiative, and urged EIR to ``keep it up'' in pushing it as a US policy. Unfortunately, the moderator did not ask any of the Americans to comment. Further reports to come.
